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Thursday, May 18, 2017

Colonel Cassad with background on the US air strike in southern Syria

Hybrid War in Suwide - Colonel Cassad


Briefly about the US air strike in southern Syria.
Today there were reports e-us-launched-new-airstrikes-against-pro-a ssad-forces-in? Utm_term = .jg1352l9QD # .jg1 352l9QD , A blow to the mobile group of the Shiite militia, which was moving towards the border with Iraq. Specifics are not special - in social networks they write about destroyed waggons and even tanks, but there are no hard confirmations yet, although the fact of a strike in the American press is acknowledged, with reference to anonymous sources in the Pentagon. A little later, the Pentagon officially stated that the strike against the pro-government forces was caused because they approached the area of ​​the US special forces in At-Tanf.

What's going on here? Schematically sketched a general disposition.

The United States, Britain and Jordan with the hands of the "New Syrian Army" actions from the territory of Jordan support the "green" operations in the province of Deraa, and also occupy the desert with a rare network of roads and settlements that the Caliphate does not control. The fact that the map is usually painted with either black or green, in fact a bare desert is not controlled by anybody-roads (especially road interchanges), rare settlements, few strong points in the desert, which more often signify presence and display a flag than Form a single front line or provide control over the huge nothing.

The deterioration of the situation for the Caliphate in Syria has created the prerequisites for occupying large territories of central and southern Syria, for which a serious struggle is under way. On the one hand, we see US and Kurdish operations in the area of ​​Rakki 1864.html , on the other hand, the SAA , with the support of Russia, conducts offensive operations east of Aleppo, advancing south of Jir Air Base, And also develops an offensive in the province of Homs, increasing efforts in the Palmer direction

In the south, the US plans were to join the "green" enclave in East Kalamun with the main forces operating from the Jordanian bases. To do this, they had to connect at the crossroads to the south of Al-Karjatein (where they had already been seen
American special forces). But an amendment was made to these plans. Connections CAA and Shiite formations tied to Iran, began a rapid advance to the east, as a result of which not only took two strategically important crossroads, but also created the prerequisite for the full encirclement of the "green" in Eastern Kalamun, simultaneously solving the task of providing the southern flank of the Palmer group. As it is not difficult to notice from the current state of affairs, the "green" in East Kalamun hopelessly lose the race to the east. But this is one side of the coin.

On the other hand, Iran is implementing more ambitious plans related to the impetuous throw to the border with Iraq in order to speed up the connection of its formations in Syria with the connections of "Hasd Shaabi" operating in Iraq (about 150,000 people under arms) and take control of part of the border With Jordan and Iraq, depriving the Americans of the opportunity to conduct operations in Syria through proxy structures. About plans to accumulate Iran's efforts on the Syrian and Iranian theater of operations already wrote in early 2017 8613.html . It is also worth noting the February ISW report 4166.html , which also indicated that Iran will continue to actively develop its hybrid strategy in relation to the Syrian and Iraqi war.

In May, it was possible to see how Iran, through the hands of its "proxy", began implementing an active strategy in South-Eastern Syria. Therefore, Iran pushes mobile groups farther east to the border, in order to occupy more advantageous positions for the subsequent stages of the war. Ideally, it would be advantageous for Iran to push the Hezbollah units along with the SAA to the state border of Syria, then to move Rustba's forces there to the "Khashd-Shaabi" detachments and arrange a "meeting on the Elbe-2" by raising the Syrian and Iraqi border Flags, while de facto, this will open the way for more free pumping of military resources from Iraq to Syria, which will facilitate the subsequent cleansing of the Caliphate and strengthen the positions of both Assad and Iran itself in Syria.

Since the main forces of the Caliphate operate north of this theater, and the forces of the "green" here are sufficiently limited and without the support of the US special forces there is not much that is good (see "Defeat near Abu Kemal" 3358. Html and "On the Syrian-Jordanian border" 8480.html ), then the Iranians (under the Syrian flag) actually carry out a deep offensive operation in the operational emptiness, as opponents do not have enough strength to seriously Tense flanks (with the exception of foraging operations). Therefore, it took an air strike to moderate the Iranian ambitions, which by the hands of Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiites, is trying to develop the success achieved in Eastern Kalamun. In addition, since early May, an information campaign has been launched against pro-Iranian Shiites operating in the Anbar province, accused of war crimes against the civilian population in the territories of the liberated Caliphate (of course Mosul is not a word). It is also possible to recall the throwing of the wounding of General IRIS Kasem Suleymani in the southern regions of Syria, which was subsequently refuted.

It seems that Iran's ambitious plans to join forces in south-eastern Syria with the factions operating in Iraq have not been ignored by the Pentagon and are now actively resisting it, both within the framework of information and psychological operations, and within the framework of similar air strikes.
The first round of the fight was over Iran, who won the race in East Kalamun. Now we are looking at the second round, where the question is being decided whether Iran will be able to control the road leading to the border with Iraq. If Iran wins this fight, then the Americans and the British will only have a practically bare desert. Therefore, the US raises rates.

Of course, an air strike on a conditional "Hezbollah / Shiite militia" can intensify military operations in southern Syria, both to the south of Kalamun, and to Deraa. Iran can insist that Syrian aviation support further advance to the border and strike back at American "proxy". It is possible that such a topic will be discussed with Russia, although Russia is now more interested in further development of operations to the east of Aleppo and in East Homs, where the activities of the Russian Air Force are currently focused. Russia this situation is objectively beneficial, since on the one hand Asad grows in territory, and Washington's plans to unite its "proxy" with the encirclement from Eastern Kalamun have been thwarted.

On the other hand, the Kremlin has to put up with the fact that Iran, in addition to joint plans related to the support of Assad, has its own considerations on the development of operations in Iraq and Syria. This is also an important feature of the coalition war 4062.html , which does not imply the full consent of the Allies on all issues. On the topic of whether the Suwade offensive is a development of a purely Iranian strategy or whether this issue is coordinated with Moscow, we will see by the nature of the subsequent events and reaction to the activity of Americans in the Jordanian border area.

We can confidently say that in south-eastern Syria, the hybrid war will continue to intensify, which receives extremely misleading coverage in the press. The main players, acting with their own "proxy" or special units, solve the tasks of redistribution of spheres of influence, which is important both for further warfare and for potential negotiations on a final settlement.

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